WHY THE MAHARASHTRA SEEING SO MUCH RAIN IN 2025

Why Marathwada (and much of Maharashtra) is seeing so much rain 

An active weather system — a depression over south-interior Odisha moving westwards — combined with lots of atmospheric moisture, already-saturated soils and reservoir/dam releases is producing repeated heavy to very heavy rain over Marathwada and neighbouring Maharashtra districts right now. At the same time, large-scale climate signals point toward a likely transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña in the coming weeks.

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1) The immediate meteorological cause (what’s producing the rain now)

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin shows a depression over south-interior Odisha moving westward (issued 27 Sept 2025). That circulation is drawing in moisture and producing heavy to very heavy rainfall across a broad swathe that includes Marathwada, Vidarbha and parts of Maharashtra (explicit warnings for 27–29 Sept). Where such a depression or low-pressure area moves across central India, it commonly triggers widespread heavy showers and localized very heavy spells.

The IMD bulletin also lists flash-flood and inundation risk for several Marathwada districts because many watersheds and low-lying areas are already saturated. When soils and rivers are saturated, even ordinary heavy showers cause rapid runoff and flooding.

2) Local amplifiers - why Marathwada is being hit hard

Saturated catchments and reservoirs: Several news reports note heavy rainfall over the preceding days and reservoir/dam discharges (Jayakwadi, Majalgaon, Sindphana etc.), which have worsened local flooding and forced evacuations. When dams release water into already-full downstream channels, flooding and waterlogging increase rapidly. 

Urban/riverine vulnerability and infrastructure limits: Waterlogging in industrial and low-lying towns (reported in Aurangabad, Jalna, etc.) is made worse by drainage restrictions, clogged urban drains, and high surface runoff after intense bursts of rain. Local reports describe road and crop damage and rescue operations. 

CURRENT DATA 

3) Larger regional drivers — monsoon dynamics in late September

By late September the large-scale monsoon circulation weakens, but monsoon lows/depressions over the Bay of Bengal or adjoining regions still form and sometimes track westward into central India — these are classic causes of heavy post-monsoon rainfall in Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas. The IMD bulletin explicitly links the current rainfall to such a system. 

MUMBAI IN 2025 SEPTEMBER

4) Is La Niña involved right now?

Not directly in the short term. The immediate heavy rain is being driven by the depression/low-pressure system and local moisture convergence, not by ENSO acting on a day-to-day basis. The IMD bulletin and current news place the primary cause squarely on the depression. 

But La Niña prospects matter for seasonal odds. Multiple international forecasting centres (NOAA/CPC, IRI, WMO) have been flagging a likely transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña in the coming months (probabilities in the 50–70% range for Oct–Dec 2025 in recent outlooks). A developing La Niña tends to increase the probability of above-average rainfall over India during the monsoon season (and can influence extremes), so it’s a relevant background factor for seasonal risk, though it’s not the immediate cause of today's depression-driven rains.

5) Will a developing La Niña affect the coming winter (India and Maharashtra)?

LA NINA EVENT

Northern India: La Niña winters often bring colder than normal conditions to northern India and can favour stronger cold spells (and sometimes more snowfall in the Himalayas) because of changes in large-scale circulation. Several meteorological discussions and recent media pieces have warned of a colder winter in parts of India if La Niña establishes. 

Maharashtra (western India): La Niña’s effect on Maharashtra’s winter is less direct and generally weaker than its effect on the north. Possible winter impacts include slightly increased odds of cool spells and regional rainfall anomalies depending on how the western disturbances and other circulation features behave. But local winter weather will also depend on regional circulation patterns (western disturbances, Indian Ocean conditions, local sea surface temps), so forecasts will be refined as the season approaches. In short: La Niña raises some odds of an unusual winter (colder or more variable), but it does not guarantee a uniformly colder/wetter winter for all of Maharashtra. 

6) What this means for agriculture, water and flooding risk

Short term (days–weeks): Continued heavy spells, saturated soils, and reservoir management decisions mean elevated flood and waterlogging risk for Marathwada — immediate actions are flood preparedness, safe sheltering, draining standing water from farm fields and protecting harvested produce as IMD/NDRF advisories suggest. News reports and IMD advisories already note rescue operations and government advisories. 

Medium term (seasonal): If La Niña develops, agricultural outlook for monsoon-related crops could improve overall (higher rainfall probability), but localized extremes (flooding or crop damage) remain a serious concern. Farmers should follow local agromet advisories closely. 

7) Way ahead

Follow IMD district/short-range bulletins and local administration alerts for warnings and evacuation instructions. The IMD is issuing daily bulletins and district-level warnings right now. 

Expect river/reservoir releases to continue influencing local flood risk — keep updated with district water resources and dam authorities. News coverage already reports dam discharges worsening downstream flooding. 
For the winter (Oct–Dec): monitor ENSO outlook updates from IMD, NOAA/CPC, IRI and WMO — those agencies will refine probabilities as ocean/atmospheric indicators evolve. Current consensus (late Sept 2025) favors a transition to La Niña in coming months, which affects seasonal odds but is not a short-term trigger for today’s floods.

Now we can summarise as,

Why so much rain now: a westward-moving depression/low (IMD) is bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall over Marathwada and Maharashtra, amplified by saturated soils and dam releases — hence flooding and rescue operations. 

La Niña’s role: La Niña is likely to develop in coming months (not the immediate cause today). If it does, it will change seasonal probabilities (including a tendency toward stronger monsoon influence and a potentially colder winter for northern India), but specific local winter effects for Maharashtra will depend on several interacting factors.

FAQs : 

1. Why is Marathwada experiencing so much rain right now?

Because a depression (a strong low-pressure system) moved from Odisha toward central India, pulling in large amounts of moisture and causing widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall across Maharashtra.

2. Is this unusual for late September?

Not entirely. Even though the monsoon usually begins to withdraw around this time, Bay of Bengal lows and depressions can still form and move westward, bringing heavy post-monsoon showers.

3. Is Marathwada more affected than some other regions?

Marathwada has already received heavy rains earlier this month, so soils and rivers are saturated. Dam releases (like Jayakwadi and Majalgaon) have added to the flooding, making the impact stronger in districts such as Aurangabad, Jalna, and Parbhani.

4. Is La Niña causing the current rainfall?

No. The current rainfall is due to the depression system. La Niña does not directly cause day-to-day weather events, but it influences seasonal rainfall patterns.

5. What is La Niña?

La Niña is a climate phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. This affects global weather, including rainfall in India.

6. Will La Niña affect Maharashtra in the coming months?

Yes, indirectly. If La Niña develops fully, it may increase the chance of wetter-than-normal conditions in India during late monsoon and can influence winter patterns. However, effects in Maharashtra are usually weaker than in northern India.

7. How could La Niña impact the winter season in India?

La Niña winters are often colder in northern India and sometimes bring more western disturbances. In Maharashtra, winters may turn slightly cooler than usual, but large variations depend on local weather systems.

8. Should farmers in Marathwada be concerned?

Yes, in the short term. Waterlogging and flooding could damage standing crops. Farmers should follow agromet advisories, drain excess water from fields where possible, and store harvested produce safely.

9. What should residents do to stay safe during the heavy rains?

• Follow IMD and district administration warnings.
• Stay away from overflowing rivers and streams.
• Be alert to dam releases and possible flash floods.
• Move to safer places if advised by local authorities.

10. Is this the last spell of heavy rain for Maharashtra this year?

Not necessarily. Post-monsoon systems in October can still bring heavy rain. Seasonal outlooks depend on evolving ocean and atmosphere patterns, so continued monitoring is necessary.

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